Thursday, 13th December 2012
THE DILEMMA OF NORTH KOREA - Once again North Korea hits the headlines as it defied the west by launching a Unha-3 ballistic rocket which now puts North Korea another step closer to being able to launch ballistic, nuclear tactical weapons at the United States of America and indeed other western countries across the European Union and Great Britain.
Within a short period of time, after the launch William Hague summoned the North Korean Ambassador for a full explanation of what is a clear violation of the UN Security Councils Resolutions. What came out of this meeting? Well probably not a lot and it is most likely that no UN Security Council Resolutions are going to make the slightest difference as to how Kim Jong-un and the other dictators running North Korea and its oppressive regime.
So where does this put us today? Is North Korea seriously looking to threaten South Korea and the west with short and long range ballistic missiles? The issue here is that Kim Jong-un has to show his people that he has a firm grip on power and that the only reason North Korea is struggling to feed its people is not because of the massive financial costs of building and conducting test but rather the evil capitalist powers of the western world.
The question on most people’s minds is what would happen if Kim Jong-un actually had the capability of launching such a nuclear attack? Would such weapons be used to attack or threaten the western hemisphere into submission of removing any or all of the current sanctions levied against North Korea by the UN Security Council?
I am not going to sit here and pretend that I am some kind of expert on world affairs, or indeed the inner workings of governments or the North Korean regime but it does appear to me that we are quickly heading for a Mexican Stand-Off. The underlining issue here appears not to be so much the problems with North Korea, as its financial are believed to be in disarray, but rather who is backing North Korea’s regime and why?
We already know that North Korea has extremely strong ties with China, Iran and Syria. These ties pose a significant problem for the U.S, UK and Europe and indeed the UN as a whole. China is in an extremely strong position and supporting North Korea, as its little brother, leaves the west in an extremely precarious position. If the UN ever decided to take military action against North Korea the result could be an all out war that would see the U.S, UK, Europe embroiled in conflict with North Korea, China, Iran and Russia. Welcome to World War 3.
How would such a war play out? To think that any country could really take on the might of China’s military forces alone would be folly. The UK simply does not have the military capability thanks to the decades of cost cutting by Tony Blair’s administration and indeed the current Tory government. The U.S? While the U.S may have military might it comes nowhere close that that of China. With over a billion people and the largest Air Force in the world, China is no longer the sleeping tiger – it is fully awake and ready to pounce. On top of that China has the capability to ruin the United States due to it holding such massive debt against the U.S – if you look closely enough you’ll probably see that China is the major shareholder and quite clearly has China Inc., stamped firmly on the U.S.
Would such a war be nuclear? That’s unlikely. No government is going to launch strategic nuclear weapons as the consequences for either side would result in only one outcome – almost total annihilation.
The real issue here is what can we do about North Korea or Syria or Iran? Do we not live in enlightening times where we can simply stand back and say…? “It’s your country, do what you will providing no threat is levied upon us.” It would be nice to think so but politics is never that simple, it’s a game of Tick-Tack-Toe where the outcome is certain in that war cannot be waged and yet sanctions have little effect, especially when China is most likely propping up the North Korean economy and violating the sanctions and embargoes levied upon North Korea by the UN.
Unless the west can communicate effectively with China and North Korea in order to bring about peaceful change then this scenario will be played out over and over again with the UN flexing its muscles and North Korea ignoring their plea for more co-operations from its regime.